Jake Cielys 2023 fantasy football breakout tight ends: Chigoziem Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich and more

It’s the finale of the fantasy football breakout player series, with breakout tight ends capping things off. Instead of ranking my Top 5, or simply giving you a list of names, I’m mixing things up in this final piece with the case for and the case against each tight end becoming a TE1. I’ll finish with a likelihood score.

ROOKIES AND NON-QUALIFIERS

• Pat Freiermuth, PIT — Even with Kenny Pickett’s poor rookie season, Freiermuth still finished TE8 with a stat line of 98-63-732-2. Of course, there is room for more — e.g., Pickett throws more touchdowns — but Freiermuth might only jump 2-3 spots at best… and there is an equal chance he slides a few spots if George Pickens improves and Diontae Johnson bounces back.
• Cole Kmet, CHI — Kmet finished a spot higher than Air Freiermuth, and that was before the addition of D.J. Moore. Justin Fields is in a position to make his leap forward, but Kmet had just 69-50-544-7, and just a two-touchdown regression (don’t forget his 93-60-612 and zero touchdowns in 2021) would need another 8-for-80 receiving (58-for-624, overall) to have 122 points again. Kmet is a great back-end TE1, but like Freiermuth, the ceiling isn’t much higher.
• Dalton Kincaid, BUF; Michael Mayer, LV; et al rookies — Rinse and repeat. We can love rookies for value — I had an article pointing out we might be undervaluing them — but they don’t qualify as breakouts… for me (if you think rookies deserve a “breakout” tag, I won’t argue much).

TOP BREAKOUT TIGHT ENDS

Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN
Case For: For tight ends with 20+ targets, Okonkwo was first in YPRR (Yards Per Route Run) at 2.65, with Travis Kelce second at 2.24. He was third in YAC/REC (Yards After the Catch per Reception) at 7.94 and Target% (percent of routes targeted) at 27.1%, behind only Kyle Pitts (28.0%) and MyCole Pruitt (27.3%) and fourth in Rec20+% (Reception% of 20+ Yards) at 21.9, behind O.J. Howard, Darren Waller and Hunter Henry. Okonkwo is a top-two target for the Titans, who know there is more upside seen in their utilization of him (and those stats).

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Case Against: Similar to Kadarius Toney, the Titans often planned to target/utilize Okonkwo when on the field, as he was still only out there for 36.4% of all snaps, running just 170 routes (for reference, Tyler Higbee — TE10 last year, and the hurdle we want Okonkwo to cross — had 86.7% of the snaps and 433 routes. Blocking and routes need improvement — both possibly limiting Top 10 snap percentage for tight ends.
TE1 Likelihood: 8/10

Irv Smith, CIN
Case For: Smith finished the 2020 season with three double-digit scores in the final six games, racking up five touchdowns. Don’t forget that Smith was a second-round pick, as an athletic matchup problem for defenses with Evan Engram-esque upside. The Bengals were the seventh-best offense in PPG, and Joe Burrow just threw for 4,475 yards and 35 touchdowns. Also, Smith is healthy… again.

Case Against: Fighting with Tyler Boyd to be the third-best option for Burrow. On that note, Hayden Hurst had sleeper potential last year but averaged just 5.2 targets per game. Health is a major concern.
TE1 Likelihood: 4.5/10

Trey McBride, ARI
Case For: After Zach Ertz had a season-ending injury and McBride got more accustomed to the NFL, he was TE11 from Weeks 14-18 with 28-20-219-1 (71.4 REC%). Ertz is 32, coming off surgery (torn ACL and MCL), might not be 100% for Week 1, and McBride is a great receiving tight end. McBride compares to Hunter Henry and Tyler Higbee, and being the third option — behind Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore, as of today — can turn into a 90+ targets season and TE1 finish.

Case Against: With those name comparisons, you might need high YAC or touchdown marks to push for the Top 10. Kyler Murray is dicey (at best) for Week 1, and the longer his return takes — with losses piling up — the more likely McBride is left with Colt McCoy or rookie Clayton Tune. McBride isn’t a guarantee to be the third option with Greg Dortch, rookie Michael Wilson and Ertz (if/when he returns) all in the mix. Unless McBride sees at least 80 targets, the TE1 tier won’t be within reach.
TE1 Likelihood: 3.5/10

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Jelani Woods, IND
Case For: Monster! Woods is 6-foot-7, 259 pounds with great athleticism for his size. That showed up in his 12.5 yards per reception and 1.51 YPRR despite only averaging 4.8 YAC/REC. A major red zone threat, Woods is still a bit unrefined but bursting with potential for a team needing options to step up with rookie Anthony Richardson, who enjoys hitting seams.

Case Against: Woods doesn’t have the best routes, might not get “starter level” snaps due to other options and his blocking, and has a rookie with questionable passing as a quarterback. Additionally, Woods might be no better than fourth in the pecking order behind Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs in a run-heavy offense.
TE1 Likelihood: 3/10

(Photo by Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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