MLB All-Under-25 Team: Julio Rodrguez, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and more

When the Astros let Carlos Correa walk last year, they had high hopes for the 24-year-old prospect taking his place at shortstop. Extremely high hopes. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman were calling Jeremy Peña a future “superstar” before he’d even played an MLB game. But no one in Houston was yet envisioning all the hardware Peña would collect as a rookie: a Gold Glove award, the ALCS and World Series MVP awards and a World Series ring.

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Each season we see some young players struggle with the transition to the majors while others, like Peña, emerge as stars. That’s the thing about the pivot from promising prospect to bonafide big leaguer: It’s unpredictable. And the All-Under-25 Team is a collection of the ones who figured it out fast — the future aces, the budding superstars, the guys becoming household names.

On The Athletic’s second annual All-Under-25 Team, you’ll find All-Stars, Rookies of the Year, breakout performers, newbies, snubs from last year’s team and a few returners who already are among the best hitters in baseball.

You will not find Peña. Or Ronald Acuña Jr. Or Shane McClanahan. Or Yordan Álvarez. They all are 25 and have aged out. To be eligible for the All-Under-25 Team, a player must be 24 or younger on Opening Day (March 30) and must already have appeared in an MLB game. They may be selected at any position they played in their most recent MLB season. In picking players, we weighed previous MLB production, 2023 projections and whether they are expected to make a meaningful impact in the majors this season — which could be limited by injury or lack of opportunity on their respective big league roster.

Catcher

Starting with a snub. A year ago, I went with Keibert Ruíz over Kirk. They’d had similar numbers in relatively small samples in their age-22 seasons in 2021. I wrote at the time, “Kirk has been an above-average hitter with pop and a good plate approach in his brief major-league career. Ruiz, however, has a more prototypical catcher profile and projects to stay there long-term, while Kirk may be moved elsewhere when top prospect Gabriel Moreno reaches the majors.”

Well, Moreno arrived. Kirk didn’t move. He caught 78 games and was designated hitter for 51 more, and all he did was hit .285/.372/.415, start at catcher in the All-Star Game and win a Silver Slugger. The Blue Jays are now so secure in their catching situation with Kirk and backup Danny Jansen that they sent Moreno to Arizona in a trade for outfielder/occasional catcher Daulton Varsho. This spot on the All-Under-25 Team is all Kirk’s now, too.

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Honorable mention: Keibert Ruíz, Nationals; Gabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks; Francisco Álvarez, Mets; MJ Melendez, Royals; Logan O’Hoppe, Angels

Corner infielders

The first of five returning players on this year’s All-Under-25 Team, Guerrero didn’t come close to replicating his near-MVP 2021 numbers in 2022, but a 32-homer, 97-RBI, 132-wRC+ Gold Glove season still plays, especially at 23.

Guerrero had the most hard-hit balls (defined by Statcast as an exit velocity of 95-plus mph) in the majors in 2021 and 2022, in part because of volume — he played in 321 of 324 regular-season games — and in larger part because he just scorches baseballs. But there was a significant difference in how selective Guerrero was at the plate in 2021 and in 2022, and that helps explain his drop — from superhuman to greathuman, I guess — in productivity. He chased more last season and walked less. Pitchers nibbled and got weaker contact. I’d bet we’ll see Guerrero attacking more first-pitch strikes and making a concerted effort to chase less in 2023.

Many in the industry expect Witt to take a big step forward in 2023 after a debut season in which he showed flashes of why he was such a hyped prospect but also reminders that there’s a steep learning curve for someone with only about a season’s worth of at-bats in the minors. As a hitter, Witt was eaten up by fastballs. He chased often. He rarely walked — a result even more valuable when you’re one of the fastest men in baseball. Defensively, playing mostly shortstop but a fair share at third base, Witt was in the first (worst) percentile by Outs Above Average, tying for ninth-worst in the majors at -11 OAA. And yet he was the fifth rookie in MLB history with at least 20 homers and 30 steals. There’s still so much to dream upon with Witt, and this season should tell us a lot about how likely he is to reach his sky-high ceiling.

Honorable mention: Triston Casas, Red Sox; Jose Miranda, Twins; Andrew Vaughn, White Sox; Isaac Paredes, Rays; Brett Baty, Mets

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Middle infielders

Here’s how to go from All-Under-25 Team afterthought to starter in one season: Hit .297/.371/.466 with 17 homers and 20 steals, win a Gold Glove at second base and finish sixth in AL MVP voting. My, oh, my. In his first full season in the majors, Giménez emerged as an everyday player for Cleveland and contributed in all phases. A little power. A lot of speed. Dazzling defense (13 OAA). He cut his strikeout rate to 20.1 percent. While he chases frequently and rarely walks (6.1 percent walk rate), Giménez managed a high on-base percentage that was buoyed in part by being hit by pitch 25 times (most in MLB). Is that replicable? We’ll see! The full package makes Giménez a very intriguing and very valuable player for the Guardians.

Franco, another returnee from last year’s All-Under-25 Team, was limited to 83 games in 2022 because of injury. As much as it seems we haven’t seen the best of Franco, he’s been worth 4.7 fWAR across 153 MLB games and 652 plate appearances — almost exactly a full-season sample. When he manages to be healthy for a full season, Franco will be among the most valuable players in the American League. It’s that simple. You go to the ballpark expecting to see him get multiple hits each game. He refuses to strike out (only Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan had lower strikeout rates in 2022) and consistently puts the ball in play. Franco pairs above-average speed with solid defense at shortstop. And he just turned 22 March 1. It’s true. We still haven’t seen the best of Franco. But what we have seen is pretty, pretty good.

Henderson, 21, is the youngest player on the All-Under-25 roster. Ranked No. 2 on Keith Law’s preseason prospect list, Henderson got a taste of the majors late last season and batted .259/.349/.440 with a 126 wRC+ (100 is league average). He possesses the eye, the swing, the speed and the glove to be an immediate impact player for Baltimore in 2023. And odds are high he’ll be back on this All-Under-25 list again next year … and the next year … and the next year. Henderson can play second base and shortstop but also has the defensive skill to be an elite option at third base. There’s an argument to be made that Vaughn Grissom deserves this roster spot — he hit .291/.353/.440 with five homers in a 41-game stint with the Braves last season and was on their postseason roster — but Henderson has a higher ceiling and projects to have more playing time in 2023 than Grissom, who will begin the season in Triple A.

Honorable mention: Vaughn Grissom, Braves; Oneil Cruz, Pirates; Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies; Royce Lewis, Twins; Oswald Peraza, Yankees; Nolan Gorman, Cardinals, Miguel Vargas, Dodgers

Outfielders

We might see a flood of repeat All-Under-25 players next season because just four of our 10 position players so far — Kirk, Guerrero, Giménez and Tatis — will turn 25 before Opening Day 2024.

And now, MLB’s fastest player in 2022: Corbin Carroll (30.7 feet/second). Ranked by Law as baseball’s No. 1 prospect entering 2023, Carroll had bonkers numbers in a brief minor-league career that I believe we can say is now over, save the occasional rehab assignment. The final minor-league tally: .310/.426(!)/.588(!!) with 28 homers, 77 extra-base hits and 52 steals in 142 games. Hitter-friendly environments or not, a 1.014 OPS still says something. Carroll had a cup of coffee in the majors late last season and had a 130 wRC+ in 32 games despite looking a little overmatched at times. He’ll catch up. And even as he adjusts at the plate he’ll provide 100th percentile sprint speed on the bases and elite defense in center field. Could be worse.

We’ll surely have a tussle in the comment section about center field, the only outfield position at which both 2022 Rookies of the Year — Rodríguez and Harris — are eligible for the All-Under-25 Team. I went with Rodríguez, but there’s no wrong answer. (And I have an olive branch to offer Harris later.) Rodríguez stumbled out of the gate last season, batting .136 and striking out in half of his at-bats for the first two weeks, then took off to the tune of a .298/.357/.542 slash line the rest of the way. He tied for eighth among outfielders in Outs Above Average (9 OAA). He was the third rookie in MLB history with 25 homers and 25 steals, joining Mike Trout and Chris Young, and he would’ve had a shot at a 30-30 season if he’d been healthy all season. Also: At long last, the Mariners made the playoffs. The J-Rod Era is upon us.

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Tatis is back on the All-Under-25 Team despite not playing in 2022. Tatis is coming back from multiple surgeries (left shoulder and left wrist) and won’t return from a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs until late April, but his tools and his track record in the majors suggest he’ll still be an impact player. Tatis hit .292/.369/.596 with a 153 wRC+ in parts of three MLB seasons, and he led the NL in homers (42) in 2021. His skills are outrageous. He must stay on the field.

Harris, who jumped from Double A to the majors mid-season in 2022, would’ve taken NL Rookie of the Year voting in a landslide if not for a certain mustachioed teammate who we’ll get to shortly. Harris hummed along with a .300 batting average for most of the season — despite an elevated chase rate — and showed power (19 homers), speed (20 steals) and top-tier defensive skill in center (7 OAA, tied for 13th among outfielders). Stretch those hitting totals across a full season and Harris would come close to a 30-30 season; most projections models, however, have him closer to the low 20s in homers and steals in 2023. Either way, after signing an eight-year extension plus two option years with Atlanta, Harris is not going anywhere.

Honorable mention: Dylan Carlson, Cardinals; Garrett Mitchell, Brewers; Riley Greene, Tigers; Christopher Morel, Cubs; Drew Waters, Royals; Oswaldo Cabrera, Yankees; James Outman, Dodgers; Ji Hwan Bae, Pirates

Designated hitter

Thanks to Soto’s July 6 start at DH — his only appearance there — we’re able to give Soto, his glove and his first percentile Outs Above Average (his -16 OAA in 2022 was second-worst in the majors) a breather when the All-Under-25 Team takes the field. So long as his bat stays in the lineup.

No other hitter in the game could lead the league in walks, post a .401 on-base percentage and a 145 wRC+ and have that considered a disappointing season. But no other hitter is like Soto. He is a blend of supreme contact skills, patience and power, and that’s why GM A.J. Preller and the Padres unloaded their farm system to acquire Soto last summer. Projections expect a rebound from Soto in 2023, and that seems a safe assumption. At the heart of a loaded Padres lineup, he should see pitches to hit. Historically, he’s done damage with those.

Starting rotation

The All-Under-25 rotation turned over entirely this year: Ian Anderson fell off, while Trevor Rogers, Alek Manoah, Casey Mize and McClanahan aged out.

This team’s next ace is Strider, who was the Braves’ swingman early last season and forced his way into their rotation by late May. From that point on, in 20 starts, Strider had a 2.77 ERA, a minuscule .183/.252/.274 opposing slash line while averaging better than a strikeout and a half per inning. Preposterous stuff. While Strider has three pitches to serve lefties (four-seamer, slider, changeup), right-handed hitters step into the box knowing they’ll see one of two offerings: fastball or slider. And they can’t touch either. Righties hit .156 against him last season and struck out in 44 percent of their plate appearances. As a rookie, Strider reached 200 strikeouts in 130 innings, faster than any other pitcher in MLB history, followed by Randy Johnson (130 2/3 innings) and Gerrit Cole (133 1/3 innings). What Strider has in store for an encore is anyone’s guess.

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Greene has the same elite velocity and pitch mix as Strider but is still putting it all together. In his first taste of the majors, Greene had a 4.44 ERA across 125 2/3 innings for Cincinnati. He was brilliant at times, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 13 of 24 starts (including a kinda-sorta combined no-hitter loss in Pittsburgh), but also was hit hard. Greene’s elevated home-run rate, 1.72 per nine innings, was fifth-most among pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2022. We could expect that to be a bit lower if his home park wasn’t a hitter’s haven. Still, with a solid rookie season in the bag and a bright future ahead, Greene is a slam-dunk add for this rotation.

Unlike Greene, a former No. 2 overall pick and hyped prospect, Contreras was just a mid-tier prospect in the Yankees farm system before joining Pittsburgh in the Jameson Taillon trade in 2021. At the time, MLB.com rated Contreras at No. 19 in the Pirates farm system. Now Contreras is someone New York would like back. He had a 3.79 ERA in 21 appearances, 18 starts, for the Pirates last season and seems to still be scratching the surface of his potential. Evaluators expect his walk and strikeout rates will move closer to where they were in the minors, which will make him an even more effective pitcher for a franchise that needs established starters.

Cabrera didn’t get regular run with the Marlins until after the trade deadline last season, at which point he reeled off four consecutive scoreless starts and secured a spot in the rotation. He finished the season with a 3.01 ERA in 71 2/3 innings for the Marlins, and, despite some shaky command, held opposing hitters to a .177/.296/.325 slash line. In 2022, Cabrera was the rare starter who threw his changeup more than any of his other four pitches, and threw with equal frequency and effectiveness to left- and right-handed hitters.

Throwing a no-hitter does not automatically earn you a spot on the All-Under-25 Team. It also does not hurt. There’s much more to Detmers’ rookie season than that one May night in Anaheim. Six weeks after that, he carried a 4.66 ERA and was sent to Triple A for a reset. The demotion unlocked something. Detmers returned to the Angels in early July. His stuff was sharper; it induced more whiffs. He turned in a 3.04 ERA across 13 starts the rest of the way. So, after all that, Detmers is rounding out our rotation. We needed a lefty, anyway.

Honorable mention: Aaron Ashby, Brewers; Brayan Bello, Red Sox; MacKenzie Gore, Nationals; Luis Ortiz, Pirates; Ian Anderson, Braves; Bryce Elder, Braves; Beau Brieske, Tigers

Bullpen

The lone returner from last year’s All-Under-25 Team bullpen — only because Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase turned 25 just March 18— Crochet didn’t throw a pitch in the 2022 regular season as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. His return timeline is a little uncertain, but he’s expected to rejoin the White Sox bullpen when he’s ready. He’ll be on an innings limit but could progress to working more in multiple-inning stints than he did in 2021, when he had a 2.82 ERA in 54 1/3 innings as a rookie. Crochet throws gas, and with a 6-foot-6 frame his full extension (95th percentile) makes him appear even more on top of the hitter.

With Lance McCullers Jr. injured, Brown will start the season in the Astros rotation. Once they’re at full strength, he can either stay there or work out of the bullpen, as he showed late last season when he had an 0.89 ERA in 20 1/3 late-season innings (plus 3 2/3 more scoreless frames in the playoffs). Command has been a persistent issue, but if it improves Brown will eventually find himself finding a full-time spot in the Astros rotation. For now, he’s the All-Under-25 Team’s bulk guy.

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Muñoz, who had a 2.49 ERA in 65 innings last season, is an uncomfortable at-bat even though it’s no mystery what you’ll see. He throws 65 percent devastating sliders, and 35 percent 100 mph fastballs. Right-handed hitters have a hard time with them. Lefties can’t touch them (.157/.214/.226 in 2022). FanGraphs rated Muñoz’s slider as the top slider thrown by any qualified reliever last season; Statcast had it as the second-best, behind only Mets closer Edwin Díaz. It’s that good.

Graterol throws the most casual triple-digits sinker you’ll ever see. He carves up right-handed hitters with power sinkers and sliders. He, however, remains vexed by lefties, against whom he increased his cutter and four-seam usage in 2022 but still struggled: .292/.329/.431. Graterol gives the Dodgers a great option at the back end of their bullpen, and if he ever can harness his lopsided splits he has the stuff to be a valuable closer for many years to come.

Honorable mention: Andre Pallante, Cardinals; Adrián Morejón, Padres; Matt Brash, Mariners; DL Hall, Orioles; Jeremiah Estrada, Cubs; Cole Waites, Giants

It was requested last year that I lay out a starting lineup for the All-Under-25 Team. So, here you go. (Tatis is suspended, so Harris starts in right field.)

Not bad. Now we just need an All-Over-35 Team to put them up against.

(Photo illustration by Sean Reilly / The Athletic; Photos by Steph Chambers / Getty Images, Kyle Cooper / Colorado Rockies / Getty Images, G Fiume / Getty Images)

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